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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260922 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 19 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 22 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 23 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 30 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
61%
AIFS
47%
HRES
36%
ICON
18%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS47%Sep 18 · 18:00 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTCSep 19 · 01:38 UTC
EPS61%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTCSep 18 · 15:07 UTC
HRES36%Sep 18 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTCSep 18 · 22:38 UTC
ICON18%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 04:39 UTCSep 19 · 04:39 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON80.396503.174.83+4.83 / -4.83

WeatherNext 2 / IFS HRES: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 89°F · Sep 26 · 05:20 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 23 · 09:45 UTC89°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260922:D3