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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260924 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 23 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 24 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 25 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 02 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
82%
ICON
73%
AIFS
66%
HRES
61%
WN2
55%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS66%Sep 22 · 18:00 UTCSep 23 · 01:57 UTCSep 23 · 02:04 UTC
EPS82%Sep 22 · 00:00 UTCSep 22 · 15:19 UTCSep 22 · 15:32 UTC
HRES61%Sep 22 · 12:00 UTCSep 23 · 04:33 UTCSep 23 · 04:33 UTC
ICON73%Sep 23 · 00:00 UTCSep 23 · 04:33 UTCSep 23 · 04:33 UTC
WN255%Sep 22 · 12:00 UTCSep 22 · 23:37 UTCSep 22 · 23:48 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON180.7774513.994.01+4.01 / -4.01
HRESWN2250.5798014.4910.51+10.51 / -10.51

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 91°F · Sep 28 · 05:18 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 25 · 09:34 UTC91°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260924:D1