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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 89°F

Miami, FL · 20260925 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 24 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 25 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 26 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 03 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
91%
AIFS
58%
WN2
52%
HRES
49%
ICON
43%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS58%Sep 23 · 18:00 UTCSep 24 · 02:07 UTCSep 24 · 02:11 UTC
EPS91%Sep 23 · 00:00 UTCSep 23 · 11:02 UTCSep 23 · 11:06 UTC
HRES49%Sep 23 · 12:00 UTCSep 23 · 19:21 UTCSep 23 · 19:25 UTC
ICON43%Sep 24 · 00:00 UTCSep 24 · 04:27 UTCSep 24 · 04:27 UTC
WN252%Sep 23 · 18:00 UTCSep 24 · 04:58 UTCSep 24 · 04:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSWN2250.5538013.8511.15+11.15 / -11.15
EPSHRES150.7010010.524.49+4.49 / -4.49

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 91°F · Sep 29 · 05:21 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 26 · 09:29 UTC91°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260925:D1