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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20260926 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 25 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 26 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 27 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
83%
AIFS
54%
WN2
49%
HRES
48%
ICON
32%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS54%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTC
EPS83%Sep 24 · 00:00 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTC
HRES48%Sep 24 · 12:00 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTC
ICON32%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:21 UTCSep 25 · 04:21 UTC
WN249%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON190.426558.1010.90+10.90 / -10.90
EPSWN2160.6581010.535.47+5.47 / -5.47

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 88°F · Sep 30 · 05:36 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 27 · 09:29 UTC88°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260926:D1