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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20260927 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 24 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 27 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
87%
WN2
54%
ICON
52%
AIFS
51%
HRES
44%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS51%Sep 23 · 18:00 UTCSep 24 · 01:35 UTCSep 24 · 01:35 UTC
EPS87%Sep 23 · 00:00 UTCSep 23 · 14:56 UTCSep 23 · 14:56 UTC
HRES44%Sep 23 · 12:00 UTCSep 23 · 19:21 UTCSep 23 · 19:21 UTC
ICON52%Sep 24 · 00:00 UTCSep 24 · 04:27 UTCSep 24 · 04:27 UTC
WN254%Sep 23 · 18:00 UTCSep 24 · 04:58 UTCSep 24 · 04:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON160.6960011.144.86+4.86 / -4.86
WN2HRES380.4886518.5719.43+19.43 / -19.43

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 89°F · Oct 01 · 05:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 28 · 09:29 UTC89°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260927:D3