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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20260927 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 22 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 27 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
84%
ICON
49%
AIFS
46%
HRES
42%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS46%Sep 21 · 18:00 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTC
EPS84%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 11:08 UTCSep 21 · 11:08 UTC
HRES42%Sep 21 · 12:00 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTC
ICON49%Sep 22 · 00:00 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 89°F · Oct 01 · 05:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 28 · 09:29 UTC89°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260927:D5