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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20260928 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 25 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 29 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 06 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
AIFS
54%
HRES
51%
ICON
50%
WN2
48%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS54%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTCSep 25 · 01:30 UTC
EPS71%Sep 24 · 00:00 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTCSep 24 · 15:06 UTC
HRES51%Sep 24 · 12:00 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTCSep 24 · 22:23 UTC
ICON50%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:21 UTCSep 25 · 04:21 UTC
WN248%Sep 24 · 18:00 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTCSep 25 · 04:53 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSWN2250.5113512.7812.22+12.22 / -12.22
EPSHRES170.6105010.386.62+6.62 / -6.62

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Oct 02 · 06:03 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 29 · 09:32 UTC90°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20260928:D3