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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 28 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 01 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 02 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 09 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
71%
WN2
65%
AIFS
47%
ICON
43%
HRES
34%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS47%Sep 27 · 18:00 UTCSep 28 · 01:22 UTCSep 28 · 01:22 UTC
EPS71%Sep 27 · 00:00 UTCSep 27 · 11:02 UTCSep 27 · 11:02 UTC
HRES34%Sep 27 · 12:00 UTCSep 27 · 19:23 UTCSep 27 · 19:23 UTC
ICON43%Sep 28 · 00:00 UTCSep 28 · 04:30 UTCSep 28 · 04:30 UTC
WN265%Sep 27 · 12:00 UTCSep 27 · 23:01 UTCSep 27 · 23:01 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES370.4019514.8722.13-14.87 / +14.87
WN2ICON540.5385529.0824.92-29.08 / +29.08

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 83°F · Oct 05 · 05:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 02 · 09:11 UTC83°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20261001:D3