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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20261004 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 01 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 12 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
WN2
85%
AIFS
74%
HRES
56%
ICON
47%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS74%Sep 30 · 18:00 UTCOct 01 · 01:35 UTCOct 01 · 01:35 UTC
EPS95%Sep 30 · 00:00 UTCSep 30 · 15:02 UTCSep 30 · 15:02 UTC
HRES56%Sep 30 · 12:00 UTCSep 30 · 19:32 UTCSep 30 · 19:32 UTC
ICON47%Sep 30 · 12:00 UTCSep 30 · 16:21 UTCSep 30 · 16:21 UTC
WN285%Sep 30 · 18:00 UTCOct 01 · 04:59 UTCOct 01 · 04:59 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON310.6081018.8512.15+12.15 / -12.15
EPSWN2130.8974511.671.33+1.33 / -1.33

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Oct 08 · 05:41 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 05 · 10:03 UTC90°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20261004:D3