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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMIA · High ≥ 88°F

Miami, FL · 20261004 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 29 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 04 · 05:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 05 · 05:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 12 · 05:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMIA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/New_York.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
WN2
79%
AIFS
69%
ICON
67%
HRES
55%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS69%Sep 28 · 18:00 UTCSep 29 · 01:23 UTCSep 29 · 01:23 UTC
EPS95%Sep 28 · 00:00 UTCSep 28 · 11:02 UTCSep 28 · 11:02 UTC
HRES55%Sep 28 · 12:00 UTCSep 28 · 19:23 UTCSep 28 · 19:23 UTC
ICON67%Sep 29 · 00:00 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTCSep 29 · 04:33 UTC
WN279%Sep 28 · 12:00 UTCSep 28 · 23:02 UTCSep 28 · 23:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES290.6212018.0110.99+10.99 / -10.99
WN2ICON30.726302.180.82+0.82 / -0.82

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 90°F · Oct 08 · 05:41 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 05 · 10:03 UTC90°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMIA:20261004:D5