KMSP · High ≥ 72°F
Minneapolis, MN · 20260917 · Settled
Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.
The contract clock
| MILESTONE | UTC |
|---|---|
| Published | Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC |
| Forecast deadline | Sep 12 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day starts | Sep 17 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day ends | Sep 18 · 06:00 UTC |
| Unresolved contract voids | Sep 25 · 06:00 UTC |
1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMSP ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.
Scheduled opponents
AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2
IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble
Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.
Locked forecasts
| MODEL | PROBABILITY | INITIALIZED UTC | RECEIVED UTC | CAPTURED UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | 81% | Sep 11 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 12 · 01:32 UTC | Sep 12 · 01:32 UTC |
| EPS | 65% | Sep 11 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 11 · 22:59 UTC | Sep 11 · 22:59 UTC |
| HRES | 67% | Sep 11 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 11 · 19:23 UTC | Sep 11 · 19:23 UTC |
| ICON | 59% | Sep 11 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 11 · 16:34 UTC | Sep 11 · 16:34 UTC |
| WN2 | 82% | Sep 11 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 12 · 05:07 UTC | Sep 12 · 05:07 UTC |
Positions & reserved credits
| YES MODEL | NO MODEL | QUANTITY | YES PRICE | YES RESERVED AT ENTRY | NO RESERVED AT ENTRY | YES / NO REALIZED P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No positions have been opened for this contest. | ||||||
AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.
IFS HRES / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.
The observation record
Finalized contract result: YES · 73°F · Sep 21 · 07:00 UTC
| FIRST SEEN UTC | HIGH | SOURCE | OBSERVATION HOUR | TREATMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 18 · 09:50 UTC | 73°F | RCC-ACIS StnData | 24 | Provisional reading |
Inspect the evidence
Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.
Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMSP:20260917:D5