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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMSP · High ≥ 69°F

Minneapolis, MN · 20260924 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 24 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 02 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMSP ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
34%
HRES
32%
AIFS
16%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS16%Sep 20 · 18:00 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTCSep 21 · 01:34 UTC
EPS34%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 23:00 UTCSep 20 · 23:00 UTC
HRES32%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTC
ICON4%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

IFS HRES / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 68°F · Sep 28 · 06:20 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 25 · 09:34 UTC68°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMSP:20260924:D3