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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMSP · High ≥ 67°F

Minneapolis, MN · 20260927 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 22 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 27 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 28 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 05 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMSP ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
91%
EPS
74%
AIFS
73%
HRES
69%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS73%Sep 21 · 18:00 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTC
EPS74%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 23:02 UTCSep 21 · 23:02 UTC
HRES69%Sep 21 · 12:00 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTC
ICON91%Sep 22 · 00:00 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSHRES210.7143015.006.00+6.00 / -6.00

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 69°F · Oct 01 · 06:55 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 28 · 09:29 UTC69°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMSP:20260927:D5