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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KMSP · High ≥ 66°F

Minneapolis, MN · 20260929 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 26 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 29 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 30 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 07 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KMSP ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
99%
WN2
98%
HRES
90%
AIFS
77%
ICON
75%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS77%Sep 25 · 18:00 UTCSep 26 · 01:25 UTCSep 26 · 01:25 UTC
EPS99%Sep 25 · 00:00 UTCSep 25 · 23:05 UTCSep 25 · 23:05 UTC
HRES90%Sep 25 · 12:00 UTCSep 25 · 19:27 UTCSep 25 · 19:27 UTC
ICON75%Sep 26 · 00:00 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTCSep 26 · 04:33 UTC
WN298%Sep 25 · 18:00 UTCSep 26 · 05:04 UTCSep 26 · 05:04 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2AIFS380.8747033.244.76+4.76 / -4.76
EPSHRES110.9416010.360.64+0.64 / -0.64

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 68°F · Oct 03 · 06:16 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 30 · 09:51 UTC68°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KMSP:20260929:D3