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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 74°F

Chicago, IL · 20260920 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 20 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 28 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
AIFS
47%
ICON
28%
HRES
26%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS47%Sep 18 · 18:00 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTC
EPS95%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTC
HRES26%Sep 18 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTC
ICON28%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSAIFS290.7104520.608.40-20.60 / +20.60

IFS HRES / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 69°F · Sep 24 · 06:32 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 21 · 09:04 UTC69°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20260920:D1