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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 73°F

Chicago, IL · 20260921 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 20 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 21 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 22 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 29 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
10%
EPS
8%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS10%Sep 19 · 18:00 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTCSep 20 · 01:31 UTC
EPS8%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 14:58 UTCSep 19 · 14:58 UTC
HRES7%Sep 19 · 12:00 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTCSep 19 · 19:36 UTC
ICON2%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTCSep 20 · 04:22 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

ICON / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 66°F · Sep 25 · 06:27 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 22 · 09:54 UTC66°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20260921:D1