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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 72°F

Chicago, IL · 20260924 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 19 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 24 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 02 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
37%
AIFS
17%
EPS
13%
HRES
11%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS17%Sep 18 · 18:00 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTCSep 19 · 01:33 UTC
EPS13%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTCSep 18 · 14:59 UTC
HRES11%Sep 18 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTCSep 18 · 22:28 UTC
ICON37%Sep 19 · 00:00 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTCSep 19 · 04:23 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

IFS HRES / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 70°F · Sep 28 · 06:20 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 25 · 09:34 UTC70°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20260924:D5