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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 71°F

Chicago, IL · 20260925 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 22 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 25 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 26 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 03 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
68%
ICON
24%
EPS
20%
HRES
19%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS68%Sep 21 · 18:00 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTCSep 22 · 01:22 UTC
EPS20%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 15:01 UTCSep 21 · 15:01 UTC
HRES19%Sep 21 · 12:00 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTCSep 21 · 19:25 UTC
ICON24%Sep 22 · 00:00 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTCSep 22 · 04:29 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

IFS Ensemble / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

WeatherNext 2 / IFS HRES: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 64°F · Sep 29 · 06:24 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 26 · 09:29 UTC64°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20260925:D3