KORD · High ≥ 70°F
Chicago, IL · 20260928 · Settled
Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.
The contract clock
| MILESTONE | UTC |
|---|---|
| Published | Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC |
| Forecast deadline | Sep 25 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day starts | Sep 28 · 06:00 UTC |
| Observed day ends | Sep 29 · 06:00 UTC |
| Unresolved contract voids | Oct 06 · 06:00 UTC |
1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.
Scheduled opponents
AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble
Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.
Locked forecasts
| MODEL | PROBABILITY | INITIALIZED UTC | RECEIVED UTC | CAPTURED UTC |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | 95% | Sep 24 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 25 · 01:30 UTC | Sep 25 · 01:30 UTC |
| EPS | 82% | Sep 24 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC | Sep 24 · 15:06 UTC |
| HRES | 74% | Sep 24 · 12:00 UTC | Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC | Sep 24 · 22:23 UTC |
| ICON | 70% | Sep 25 · 00:00 UTC | Sep 25 · 04:21 UTC | Sep 25 · 04:21 UTC |
| WN2 | 69% | Sep 24 · 18:00 UTC | Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC | Sep 25 · 04:53 UTC |
Positions & reserved credits
| YES MODEL | NO MODEL | QUANTITY | YES PRICE | YES RESERVED AT ENTRY | NO RESERVED AT ENTRY | YES / NO REALIZED P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIFS | EPS | 14 | 0.88675 | 12.41 | 1.59 | +1.59 / -1.59 |
IFS HRES / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.
The observation record
Finalized contract result: YES · 73°F · Oct 02 · 06:03 UTC
| FIRST SEEN UTC | HIGH | SOURCE | OBSERVATION HOUR | TREATMENT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29 · 09:32 UTC | 73°F | RCC-ACIS StnData | 24 | Provisional reading |
Inspect the evidence
Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.
Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20260928:D3