SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 69°F

Chicago, IL · 20261001 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 28 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 01 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 02 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 09 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

97%

83%

79%

74%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	97%	Sep 27 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 28 · 01:22 UTC	Sep 28 · 01:22 UTC
EPS	79%	Sep 27 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 11:02 UTC	Sep 27 · 11:02 UTC
HRES	74%	Sep 27 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 19:23 UTC	Sep 27 · 19:23 UTC
ICON	83%	Sep 28 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 28 · 04:30 UTC	Sep 28 · 04:30 UTC
WN2	>99%	Sep 27 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 28 · 05:02 UTC	Sep 28 · 05:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPS	HRES	20	0.76455	15.29	4.71	+4.71 / -4.71

AIFS Single / WeatherNext 2: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 70°F · Oct 05 · 06:55 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 02 · 12:21 UTC	70°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20261001:D3