SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 68°F

Chicago, IL · 20261003 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 30 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 03 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 04 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 11 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

64%

51%

43%

37%

19%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	64%	Sep 29 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 30 · 01:32 UTC	Sep 30 · 01:32 UTC
EPS	43%	Sep 29 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 15:03 UTC	Sep 29 · 15:03 UTC
HRES	19%	Sep 29 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 19:25 UTC	Sep 29 · 19:25 UTC
ICON	51%	Sep 30 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 30 · 04:26 UTC	Sep 30 · 04:26 UTC
WN2	37%	Sep 29 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 30 · 04:58 UTC	Sep 30 · 04:58 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFS	EPS	23	0.53665	12.34	10.66	+10.66 / -10.66
ICON	HRES	28	0.35030	9.81	18.19	+18.19 / -18.19

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 69°F · Oct 07 · 06:30 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 04 · 09:45 UTC	69°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20261003:D3