SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KORD · High ≥ 67°F

Chicago, IL · 20261006 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Oct 03 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 06 · 06:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 07 · 06:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 14 · 06:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KORD ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Chicago.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

99%

91%

62%

61%

60%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	91%	Oct 02 · 18:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 01:26 UTC	Oct 03 · 01:26 UTC
EPS	62%	Oct 02 · 00:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 15:09 UTC	Oct 02 · 15:09 UTC
HRES	61%	Oct 02 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 22:32 UTC	Oct 02 · 22:32 UTC
ICON	60%	Oct 02 · 12:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 17:00 UTC	Oct 02 · 17:00 UTC
WN2	99%	Oct 02 · 18:00 UTC	Oct 03 · 05:07 UTC	Oct 03 · 05:07 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
WN2	AIFS	25	0.95120	23.78	1.22	+1.22 / -1.22

IFS HRES / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 74°F · Oct 10 · 07:00 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 07 · 09:41 UTC	74°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KORD:20261006:D3