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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 72°F

Seattle, WA · 20260910 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 09 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 10 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 11 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 18 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
78%
WN2
59%
AIFS
46%
HRES
26%
ICON
20%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS46%Sep 09 · 00:00 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTC
EPS78%Sep 08 · 00:00 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTCSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
HRES26%Sep 09 · 00:00 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTC
ICON20%Sep 09 · 00:00 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTCSep 09 · 07:21 UTC
WN259%Sep 08 · 18:00 UTCSep 09 · 05:04 UTCSep 09 · 05:04 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON490.3304516.1932.81-16.19 / +16.19
EPSWN2480.6877033.0114.99-33.01 / +33.01

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 71°F · Sep 14 · 08:06 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 11 · 12:29 UTC71°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260910:D1