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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 70°F

Seattle, WA · 20260918 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 17 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 18 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 19 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 26 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
75%
HRES
74%
WN2
68%
AIFS
60%
ICON
40%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS60%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 07:36 UTCSep 17 · 07:36 UTC
EPS75%Sep 16 · 00:00 UTCSep 16 · 15:06 UTCSep 16 · 15:06 UTC
HRES74%Sep 16 · 12:00 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTC
ICON40%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTC
WN268%Sep 16 · 18:00 UTCSep 17 · 05:02 UTCSep 17 · 05:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPSICON560.5754532.2323.77-32.23 / +32.23
HRESWN2250.7053517.637.37-17.63 / +17.63

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 69°F · Sep 22 · 08:52 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 19 · 12:38 UTC69°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260918:D1