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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 69°F

Seattle, WA · 20260920 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 17 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 20 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 21 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 28 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
71%
AIFS
62%
EPS
58%
WN2
54%
HRES
54%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS62%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 07:36 UTCSep 17 · 07:36 UTC
EPS58%Sep 16 · 00:00 UTCSep 16 · 15:06 UTCSep 16 · 15:06 UTC
HRES54%Sep 16 · 12:00 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTCSep 16 · 23:05 UTC
ICON71%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTCSep 17 · 04:31 UTC
WN254%Sep 16 · 18:00 UTCSep 17 · 05:02 UTCSep 17 · 05:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES250.5775514.4410.56+10.56 / -10.56
ICONWN2400.6277025.1114.89+14.89 / -14.89

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 70°F · Sep 24 · 08:37 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 21 · 12:10 UTC70°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260920:D3