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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 69°F

Seattle, WA · 20260922 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 22 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 23 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 30 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
61%
EPS
58%
HRES
47%
ICON
21%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS61%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 07:46 UTCSep 21 · 07:51 UTC
EPS58%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 03:07 UTCSep 21 · 03:20 UTC
HRES47%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 21 · 03:07 UTCSep 21 · 03:20 UTC
ICON21%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:40 UTCSep 21 · 04:51 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSHRES500.5385026.9323.07-26.93 / +26.93

ICON / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 68°F · Sep 26 · 08:27 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 23 · 12:51 UTC68°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260922:D1