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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 69°F

Seattle, WA · 20260923 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 18 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 23 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 24 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 01 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
74%
ICON
62%
AIFS
62%
WN2
58%
EPS
53%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS62%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 07:31 UTCSep 18 · 07:31 UTC
EPS53%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 17 · 15:04 UTCSep 17 · 15:04 UTC
HRES74%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 07:31 UTCSep 18 · 07:31 UTC
ICON62%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 04:26 UTCSep 18 · 04:26 UTC
WN258%Sep 17 · 12:00 UTCSep 17 · 23:02 UTCSep 17 · 23:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
HRESAIFS490.6778033.2115.79-33.21 / +33.21
ICONWN2110.600106.604.40-6.60 / +6.60

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 67°F · Sep 27 · 08:26 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 24 · 12:46 UTC67°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260923:D5