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SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 68°F

Seattle, WA · 20260926 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 21 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 26 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 27 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 04 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
41%
AIFS
41%
EPS
39%
HRES
36%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS41%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 07:31 UTCSep 21 · 07:31 UTC
EPS39%Sep 20 · 00:00 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTCSep 20 · 15:14 UTC
HRES36%Sep 20 · 12:00 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTCSep 20 · 22:29 UTC
ICON41%Sep 21 · 00:00 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTCSep 21 · 04:25 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

IFS Ensemble / WeatherNext 2: Missing eligible forecast.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 64°F · Sep 30 · 08:47 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 27 · 12:36 UTC64°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260926:D5