SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 66°F

Seattle, WA · 20260930 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 27 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 30 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 01 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 08 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS HRES

ICON versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS Ensemble. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

55%

55%

44%

31%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	55%	Sep 27 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC	Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC
EPS	55%	Sep 26 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 26 · 15:14 UTC	Sep 26 · 15:14 UTC
HRES	44%	Sep 27 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC	Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC
ICON	31%	Sep 27 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 04:31 UTC	Sep 27 · 04:31 UTC
WN2	68%	Sep 26 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 27 · 05:03 UTC	Sep 27 · 05:03 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFS	HRES	50	0.49185	24.59	25.41	-24.59 / +24.59
WN2	ICON	65	0.49480	32.16	32.84	-32.16 / +32.16

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 65°F · Oct 04 · 08:42 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 01 · 12:09 UTC	65°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20260930:D3