SHADOW SEASON / D5 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 64°F

Seattle, WA · 20261004 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 29 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Oct 04 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Oct 05 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 12 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

IFS Ensemble versus ICON

WeatherNext 2 versus IFS HRES

Bye: AIFS Single. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

94%

91%

90%

72%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	96%	Sep 29 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 07:26 UTC	Sep 29 · 07:26 UTC
EPS	72%	Sep 28 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 28 · 14:58 UTC	Sep 28 · 14:58 UTC
HRES	91%	Sep 29 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 07:26 UTC	Sep 29 · 07:26 UTC
ICON	94%	Sep 29 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 04:33 UTC	Sep 29 · 04:33 UTC
WN2	90%	Sep 28 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 29 · 05:05 UTC	Sep 29 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
ICON	EPS	14	0.82810	11.59	2.41	+2.41 / -2.41

WeatherNext 2 / IFS HRES: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 69°F · Oct 08 · 08:50 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Oct 05 · 12:09 UTC	69°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20261004:D5