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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 64°F

Seattle, WA · 20261005 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 04 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 05 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 06 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 13 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus ICON

IFS Ensemble versus WeatherNext 2

Bye: IFS HRES. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
99%
AIFS
91%
EPS
91%
HRES
88%
ICON
83%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS91%Oct 04 · 00:00 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTC
EPS91%Oct 03 · 00:00 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTC
HRES88%Oct 04 · 00:00 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTC
ICON83%Oct 04 · 00:00 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTCOct 04 · 07:28 UTC
WN299%Oct 03 · 18:00 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSICON250.8700521.753.25+3.25 / -3.25
WN2EPS250.9462023.661.34+1.34 / -1.34

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 68°F · Oct 09 · 08:57 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 06 · 12:20 UTC68°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20261005:D1