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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSEA · High ≥ 63°F

Seattle, WA · 20261006 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 05 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 06 · 08:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 07 · 08:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 14 · 08:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSEA ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Los_Angeles.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
95%
AIFS
91%
EPS
85%
HRES
75%
ICON
61%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS91%Oct 05 · 00:00 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTC
EPS85%Oct 04 · 00:00 UTCOct 04 · 15:12 UTCOct 04 · 15:12 UTC
HRES75%Oct 05 · 00:00 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTC
ICON61%Oct 05 · 00:00 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTCOct 05 · 07:31 UTC
WN295%Oct 04 · 12:00 UTCOct 04 · 23:06 UTCOct 04 · 23:06 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSEPS250.8764021.913.09+3.09 / -3.09
HRESICON490.6800533.3215.68+15.68 / -15.68

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 66°F · Oct 10 · 08:03 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 07 · 12:51 UTC66°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSEA:20261006:D1