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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSLC · High ≥ 80°F

Salt Lake City, UT · 20260915 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 14 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 15 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 16 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 23 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSLC ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
89%
HRES
89%
EPS
82%
ICON
68%
WN2
38%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS89%Sep 13 · 18:00 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTCSep 14 · 01:27 UTC
EPS82%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 15:13 UTCSep 13 · 15:13 UTC
HRES89%Sep 13 · 12:00 UTCSep 14 · 04:01 UTCSep 14 · 04:01 UTC
ICON68%Sep 13 · 00:00 UTCSep 13 · 13:56 UTCSep 13 · 13:56 UTC
WN238%Sep 13 · 18:00 UTCSep 14 · 05:02 UTCSep 14 · 05:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSEPS140.8563511.992.01-11.99 / +11.99
HRESICON420.7851532.989.02-32.98 / +32.98

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 78°F · Sep 19 · 07:29 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 16 · 09:26 UTC78°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSLC:20260915:D1