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SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSLC · High ≥ 78°F

Salt Lake City, UT · 20260921 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineSep 18 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsSep 21 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsSep 22 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsSep 29 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSLC ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus WeatherNext 2

IFS HRES versus IFS Ensemble

Bye: ICON. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
78%
AIFS
71%
ICON
64%
EPS
54%
WN2
24%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS71%Sep 17 · 18:00 UTCSep 18 · 02:54 UTCSep 18 · 03:02 UTC
EPS54%Sep 17 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 02:54 UTCSep 18 · 03:02 UTC
HRES78%Sep 17 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 02:54 UTCSep 18 · 03:02 UTC
ICON64%Sep 18 · 00:00 UTCSep 18 · 04:26 UTCSep 18 · 04:33 UTC
WN224%Sep 17 · 12:00 UTCSep 18 · 02:54 UTCSep 18 · 03:02 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
AIFSWN2630.4735029.8333.17+33.17 / -33.17
HRESEPS500.6605033.0216.98+16.98 / -16.98

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 78°F · Sep 25 · 07:29 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Sep 22 · 09:54 UTC78°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSLC:20260921:D3