SHADOW SEASON / D3 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSLC · High ≥ 77°F

Salt Lake City, UT · 20260923 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONE	UTC
Published	Sep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadline	Sep 20 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day starts	Sep 23 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day ends	Sep 24 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voids	Oct 01 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSLC ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

75%

67%

63%

51%

MODEL	PROBABILITY	INITIALIZED UTC	RECEIVED UTC	CAPTURED UTC
AIFS	63%	Sep 19 · 18:00 UTC	Sep 20 · 01:31 UTC	Sep 20 · 01:31 UTC
EPS	75%	Sep 19 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 19 · 22:57 UTC	Sep 19 · 22:57 UTC
HRES	67%	Sep 19 · 12:00 UTC	Sep 19 · 19:36 UTC	Sep 19 · 19:36 UTC
ICON	51%	Sep 20 · 00:00 UTC	Sep 20 · 04:22 UTC	Sep 20 · 04:22 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODEL	NO MODEL	QUANTITY	YES PRICE	YES RESERVED AT ENTRY	NO RESERVED AT ENTRY	YES / NO REALIZED P&L
EPS	AIFS	48	0.68965	33.10	14.90	-33.10 / +33.10
HRES	ICON	50	0.58920	29.46	20.54	-29.46 / +29.46

The observation record

Finalized contract result: NO · 76°F · Sep 27 · 07:23 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTC	HIGH	SOURCE	OBSERVATION HOUR	TREATMENT
Sep 24 · 09:39 UTC	76°F	RCC-ACIS StnData	24	Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSLC:20260923:D3