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SHADOW SEASON / D1 CONTEST RECEIPT

KSLC · High ≥ 71°F

Salt Lake City, UT · 20261005 · Settled

Simulation credits only. The probabilities below are locked entries; current forecasts cannot replace them.

The contract clock

MILESTONEUTC
PublishedSep 08 · 15:49 UTC
Forecast deadlineOct 04 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day startsOct 05 · 07:00 UTC
Observed day endsOct 06 · 07:00 UTC
Unresolved contract voidsOct 13 · 07:00 UTC

1991–2020 ACIS daily normal, rounded at publication. Source: exact KSLC ACIS daily maximum. Observing window uses local standard time in America/Denver.

Scheduled opponents

AIFS Single versus IFS Ensemble

IFS HRES versus ICON

Bye: WeatherNext 2. An eligible bye forecast still contributes to the common-case skill table.

Locked forecasts

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
>99%
EPS
>99%
HRES
>99%
ICON
>99%
WN2
>99%
MODELPROBABILITYINITIALIZED UTCRECEIVED UTCCAPTURED UTC
AIFS>99%Oct 03 · 18:00 UTCOct 04 · 01:36 UTCOct 04 · 01:36 UTC
EPS>99%Oct 03 · 00:00 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTCOct 03 · 15:07 UTC
HRES>99%Oct 03 · 12:00 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTC
ICON>99%Oct 03 · 12:00 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTCOct 03 · 19:31 UTC
WN2>99%Oct 03 · 18:00 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTCOct 04 · 05:05 UTC

Positions & reserved credits

YES MODELNO MODELQUANTITYYES PRICEYES RESERVED AT ENTRYNO RESERVED AT ENTRYYES / NO REALIZED P&L
No positions have been opened for this contest.

AIFS Single / IFS Ensemble: Gap below 4 percentage points.

IFS HRES / ICON: Gap below 4 percentage points.

The observation record

Finalized contract result: YES · 88°F · Oct 09 · 07:54 UTC

FIRST SEEN UTCHIGHSOURCEOBSERVATION HOURTREATMENT
Oct 06 · 09:09 UTC88°FRCC-ACIS StnData24Provisional reading

Inspect the evidence

Model versions and upstream calibration versions are unknown in this trial. The JSON contains the full frozen policy, entries, positions, and observation corrections.

Download this contest receipt (JSON) ↗

Contest ID: shadow-20260908-v1:KSLC:20261005:D1