KATL / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Atlanta, GAHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 02:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

21%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 10.4¢Risks 10.45u

EPSNO 89.5¢Risks 89.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +89.55u · EPS −89.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:47:50+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	7.6%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:23+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	7.6%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:36+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	7.6%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	7.6%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:07+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	7.6%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:24+00:00	8.4%	0.4%	4.1%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:46+00:00	8.4%	0.5%	4.1%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	8.4%	0.5%	4.1%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:04+00:00	7.4%	0.5%	4.1%	22.0%	5.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:15+00:00	7.5%	0.5%	4.2%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T15:26:44+00:00	7.5%	0.5%	4.2%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	7.5%	0.3%	4.2%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	7.5%	0.3%	4.2%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:11+00:00	7.5%	0.3%	7.1%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	7.5%	0.3%	7.1%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	7.5%	0.3%	7.1%	22.0%	5.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.1%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.1%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.1%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.1%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	7.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:54+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T04:15:23+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	7.4%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	8.3%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T06:32:04+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	8.3%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	10.0%	0.3%	8.3%	12.2%	18.7%
2026-10-13T08:02:48+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	8.3%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	8.3%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	8.3%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	8.3%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	8.2%	0.3%	8.3%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	8.2%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:00+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	6.1%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.5%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.9%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.9%
2026-10-13T21:43:01+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.9%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	2.6%	8.0%	20.9%
2026-10-13T23:13:32+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	6.6%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	5.0%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	5.0%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	5.0%	0.0%	3.5%	8.7%	20.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	21%	74.8°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	73.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-13 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	71.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	6%	72.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	71.8°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	4%	72.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	67.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KATL

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KATL-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 07:47 UTC

Original listing: Atlanta runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗