KAUS / Mon Aug 31 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-08-16T12:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-08-16T18:00:00+00:00	94.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-17T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	89.7%
2026-08-17T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	—	—	—	91.5%
2026-08-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	—	—	—	92.3%
2026-08-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-18T12:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	—	94.2%
2026-08-18T18:00:00+00:00	78.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-19T00:00:00+00:00	85.1%	—	—	—	—	92.1%
2026-08-19T06:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-19T12:00:00+00:00	83.8%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-08-19T18:00:00+00:00	88.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-20T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	83.2%
2026-08-20T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-20T12:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	91.4%
2026-08-20T18:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-21T00:00:00+00:00	84.6%	—	—	—	—	94.5%
2026-08-21T06:00:00+00:00	85.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-21T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	—	95.2%
2026-08-21T18:00:00+00:00	85.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-22T00:00:00+00:00	86.8%	—	—	—	—	95.6%
2026-08-22T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-08-22T12:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	7.0%	—	—	95.1%
2026-08-22T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-08-23T00:00:00+00:00	87.8%	—	6.9%	—	—	95.1%
2026-08-23T06:00:00+00:00	92.1%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-08-23T12:00:00+00:00	91.0%	—	8.0%	—	—	94.2%
2026-08-23T18:00:00+00:00	87.1%	—	98.5%	—	—	—
2026-08-24T00:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	99.3%	—	—	94.8%
2026-08-24T06:00:00+00:00	91.4%	—	99.3%	—	—	—
2026-08-24T12:00:00+00:00	93.1%	—	97.4%	15.8%	—	94.4%
2026-08-24T18:00:00+00:00	92.0%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-08-25T00:00:00+00:00	93.4%	98.7%	99.2%	96.5%	—	97.3%
2026-08-25T06:00:00+00:00	94.2%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-08-25T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	—	98.4%	89.7%	—	96.8%
2026-08-25T18:00:00+00:00	92.9%	—	99.5%	—	—	85.5%
2026-08-26T00:00:00+00:00	93.1%	99.0%	96.4%	87.7%	—	97.0%
2026-08-26T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	98.2%	—	—	97.6%
2026-08-26T12:00:00+00:00	93.7%	9.7%	99.9%	94.7%	—	98.5%
2026-08-26T18:00:00+00:00	93.6%	92.2%	99.3%	—	—	98.3%
2026-08-27T00:00:00+00:00	95.3%	99.8%	99.6%	95.0%	—	98.6%
2026-08-27T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.7%	99.9%	—	—	98.9%
2026-08-27T12:00:00+00:00	95.4%	99.5%	98.8%	98.3%	—	98.8%
2026-08-27T18:00:00+00:00	95.6%	99.7%	99.8%	—	—	98.7%
2026-08-28T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	99.8%	99.8%	99.4%	—	99.2%
2026-08-28T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	99.1%
2026-08-28T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	99.8%	99.9%	97.2%	—	99.2%
2026-08-28T18:00:00+00:00	96.2%	99.8%	99.9%	—	—	99.3%
2026-08-29T00:00:00+00:00	95.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.5%	0.3%	99.1%
2026-08-29T06:00:00+00:00	95.5%	99.8%	100.0%	1.9%	—	98.3%
2026-08-29T12:00:00+00:00	96.7%	99.9%	100.0%	95.8%	—	99.4%
2026-08-29T18:00:00+00:00	96.7%	100.0%	100.0%	98.8%	—	99.5%
2026-08-30T00:00:00+00:00	97.5%	100.0%	100.0%	97.7%	98.0%	99.8%
2026-08-30T06:00:00+00:00	97.0%	100.0%	100.0%	96.8%	—	99.8%
2026-08-30T12:00:00+00:00	97.4%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	89.9%	99.8%
2026-08-30T18:00:00+00:00	97.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.4%	—	99.9%
2026-08-31T00:00:00+00:00	97.9%	100.0%	100.0%	99.6%	99.7%	100.0%
2026-08-31T06:00:00+00:00	97.3%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	—	99.8%
2026-08-31T12:00:00+00:00	98.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-08-31T18:00:00+00:00	97.7%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	—	100.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20260831-TMAX-GE90
Opened Aug 16 · 12:00 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Austin · Mon Aug 31

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗