KAUS / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Austin, TXHigh ≥ 87°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST23%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

52%

35%

28%

18%

15%

Consensus

23%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 33.5¢Risks 33.45u

WN2NO 66.5¢Risks 66.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +66.55u · WN2 −66.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:31+00:00	19.7%	33.1%	23.8%	32.1%	6.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00	19.7%	33.1%	23.8%	32.1%	6.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00	19.7%	33.1%	23.8%	32.1%	6.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00	19.7%	33.1%	23.8%	32.1%	6.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:21+00:00	19.7%	33.1%	23.8%	32.1%	6.4%
2026-10-20T04:05:18+00:00	21.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	19.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:23+00:00	21.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	19.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:34+00:00	21.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	19.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	21.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	19.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:49+00:00	21.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	19.0%
2026-10-20T07:52:00+00:00	27.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	51.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	27.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	51.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:25+00:00	27.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	51.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:48+00:00	27.7%	28.5%	21.1%	42.0%	51.7%
2026-10-20T10:54:00+00:00	27.7%	18.2%	15.2%	35.2%	51.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	27.7%	18.2%	15.2%	35.2%	51.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	27.7%	18.2%	15.2%	35.2%	51.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:05+00:00	27.7%	18.2%	15.2%	35.2%	51.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:23+00:00	27.6%	18.2%	15.2%	35.2%	51.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	52%	86.8°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	35%	84.0°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	34%	84.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	83.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	83.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	18%	83.5°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	15%	81.7°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 87°F · KAUS

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KAUS-20261026-TMAX-GE87
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Austin high ≥ 87°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗