KBNA / Mon Oct 5 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 02 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

83%

81%

43%

41%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.5¢Risks 63.50u

ICONNO 36.5¢Risks 36.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.50u · ICON −36.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-01T03:11:22+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	61.2%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T03:57:03+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	61.2%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T04:42:09+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	61.2%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T05:27:13+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	63.9%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T06:12:19+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	63.9%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T06:57:24+00:00	77.4%	79.9%	63.9%	54.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T07:42:48+00:00	77.5%	79.9%	63.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T08:28:45+00:00	77.5%	79.9%	63.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T09:13:50+00:00	77.5%	79.9%	63.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T09:58:54+00:00	77.5%	79.9%	63.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T10:43:58+00:00	77.5%	79.9%	63.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T11:29:09+00:00	77.5%	72.0%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T12:14:28+00:00	77.5%	72.0%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T12:59:34+00:00	77.5%	72.0%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T13:44:44+00:00	72.7%	72.0%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T14:32:56+00:00	72.1%	72.0%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T15:18:10+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T16:03:42+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T16:48:49+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T17:33:57+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T18:19:03+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T19:04:08+00:00	72.1%	73.5%	62.9%	53.2%	41.1%
2026-10-01T19:49:13+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	62.9%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T20:34:24+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	62.9%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T21:19:30+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	62.9%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T22:04:40+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	62.9%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T22:49:47+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	62.9%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-01T23:34:53+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T00:19:58+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T01:05:07+00:00	74.2%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T01:50:22+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T02:35:39+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T03:20:55+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T04:06:24+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T04:51:30+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	67.5%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T05:36:46+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T06:22:01+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T07:07:11+00:00	76.9%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T07:52:21+00:00	81.5%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T08:37:31+00:00	81.5%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T09:22:36+00:00	81.5%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T10:07:43+00:00	81.5%	73.5%	87.7%	42.1%	41.1%
2026-10-02T10:53:18+00:00	81.5%	80.7%	85.9%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-02T11:39:23+00:00	81.5%	80.7%	85.9%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-02T12:25:21+00:00	81.5%	80.7%	85.9%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-02T13:10:27+00:00	81.5%	80.7%	85.9%	42.9%	41.1%
2026-10-02T13:55:56+00:00	83.3%	80.7%	85.9%	42.9%	41.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	81.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	83%	81.7°F	4.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	81%	80.3°F	3.2°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
National Blend	68%	79.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-02 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	78.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-02 02:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	76.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-02 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	76.2°F	5.8°F	2026-09-30 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261005-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 01 · 03:11 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 78°F · Mon Oct 5

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗