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KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
>99%
HRES
93%
WN2
5%
ICON
5%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u
VS
ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00AIFS Single: 17.0% · 2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 99.2% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 59.4% · 2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 5.3% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00IFS HRES: 93.0% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:00ICON: 75.7% · 2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00ICON: 5.2% · 2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:0010-10 14:5310-10 18:4010-10 21:41
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-10T14:53:49+00:0017.0%99.2%59.4%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T15:39:27+00:0017.0%99.2%59.4%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T16:24:38+00:0017.0%99.2%59.4%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T17:09:45+00:0017.0%99.2%5.3%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T17:54:57+00:0017.0%99.2%5.3%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T18:40:21+00:0017.0%99.2%5.3%93.0%75.7%
2026-10-10T19:25:33+00:00—99.2%5.3%93.0%5.2%
2026-10-10T20:10:42+00:00—99.2%5.3%93.0%5.2%
2026-10-10T20:56:00+00:00—99.2%5.3%93.0%5.2%
2026-10-10T21:41:28+00:00—99.2%5.3%93.0%5.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble>99%76.5°F2.5°F2026-10-10 00:00Pending
IFS HRES93%76.0°F3.7°F2026-10-09 12:00Pending
NWS forecast59%71.0°F2.2°F2026-10-10 14:00Pending
National Blend55%71.0°F4.5°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 25%66.5°F2.5°F2026-10-10 06:00Pending
ICON5%64.9°F3.5°F2026-10-10 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗