KBNA / Sat Oct 10 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 10 · 21:41 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

93%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 52.2¢Risks 52.20u

ICONNO 47.8¢Risks 47.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +47.80u · ICON −47.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-09-25T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-25T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	28.8%
2026-09-25T18:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T00:00:00+00:00	87.4%	—	—	—	—	75.6%
2026-09-26T06:00:00+00:00	87.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-26T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-09-26T18:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-09-27T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-27T12:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-09-27T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T00:00:00+00:00	91.7%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-09-28T06:00:00+00:00	91.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-28T12:00:00+00:00	88.2%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-09-28T18:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T00:00:00+00:00	81.8%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-09-29T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T12:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-29T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-09-30T00:00:00+00:00	93.5%	—	25.0%	—	—	79.6%
2026-09-30T06:00:00+00:00	93.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-09-30T12:00:00+00:00	96.9%	—	—	—	—	90.7%
2026-09-30T18:00:00+00:00	95.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-01T00:00:00+00:00	98.6%	—	—	—	—	93.7%
2026-10-01T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	—	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	99.2%	—	98.7%	96.5%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	99.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	94.0%	—	—	95.1%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	99.5%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	99.4%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	99.3%	93.0%	96.1%	—	—	96.2%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	98.2%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	98.9%	96.8%	98.4%	69.5%	—	98.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	99.7%	—	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	99.9%	73.4%	96.1%	62.3%	—	98.6%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	99.3%	98.3%	96.7%	60.6%	—	99.5%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	99.9%	—	99.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	99.7%	90.3%	99.3%	80.5%	—	99.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	13.0%	85.6%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	99.8%	98.9%	88.4%	50.0%	—	99.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	97.5%	81.6%	74.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	81.0%	95.5%	100.0%	38.8%	—	99.8%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	36.8%	82.8%	99.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	85.6%	—	73.4%	—	97.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	69.9%	91.9%	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	59.6%	92.1%	94.1%	85.3%	98.5%	96.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	42.0%	84.8%	94.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	92.2%	93.9%	88.2%	—	91.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	98.4%	97.4%	—	—	92.8%
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	96.7%	98.9%	62.9%	—	85.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	98.5%	97.8%	65.4%	—	70.4%
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	95.8%	97.8%	64.8%	94.3%	72.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	94.5%	93.4%	90.3%	—	71.7%
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	94.5%	92.5%	95.4%	—	80.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	96.0%	91.3%	50.0%	—	76.2%
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	95.7%	94.7%	39.4%	93.5%	56.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	8.6%	92.9%	96.0%	28.8%	—	45.8%
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	13.0%	95.3%	98.4%	50.0%	90.5%	31.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	64.8%	51.5%	24.8%	—	4.1%
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	8.9%	0.1%	42.1%	0.3%	1.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	3.1%	—	2.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	>99%	76.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	93%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-09 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-10 14:00	Pending
National Blend	55%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	66.5°F	2.5°F	2026-10-10 06:00	Pending
ICON	5%	64.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-10 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261010-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 10 · 14:53 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 71°F · Sat Oct 10

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗