KBNA / Sun Oct 11 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 90°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 05 · 12:59 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

<1%

<1%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 11.1¢Risks 11.05u

ICONNO 88.9¢Risks 88.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +88.95u · ICON −88.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-04T07:29:38+00:00	1.0%	19.3%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T08:15:43+00:00	1.0%	19.3%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T09:00:53+00:00	1.0%	19.3%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T09:45:58+00:00	1.0%	19.3%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T10:31:04+00:00	1.0%	19.3%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T11:16:18+00:00	1.0%	20.5%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T12:01:36+00:00	1.0%	20.5%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T12:47:04+00:00	1.0%	20.5%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T13:32:24+00:00	6.8%	20.5%	6.6%	0.6%	7.1%
2026-10-04T14:21:28+00:00	6.8%	20.5%	6.6%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T15:06:53+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	6.6%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T15:52:32+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	6.6%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T16:37:47+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	6.6%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T17:23:02+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	4.0%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T18:08:21+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	4.0%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T18:53:28+00:00	6.8%	20.0%	4.0%	0.6%	7.2%
2026-10-04T19:38:36+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	4.0%	22.1%	37.9%
2026-10-04T20:23:45+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	4.0%	22.1%	37.9%
2026-10-04T21:08:55+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	4.0%	22.1%	37.9%
2026-10-04T21:54:02+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	4.0%	22.1%	37.9%
2026-10-04T22:39:09+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	4.0%	22.1%	37.9%
2026-10-04T23:24:16+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T00:09:27+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T00:54:37+00:00	0.6%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T01:39:44+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T02:24:53+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T03:10:00+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T03:55:23+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T04:41:07+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T05:26:21+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T06:11:28+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T06:56:33+00:00	0.2%	20.0%	3.7%	22.5%	37.9%
2026-10-05T07:42:14+00:00	0.5%	20.0%	3.7%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T08:28:16+00:00	0.5%	20.0%	3.7%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T09:13:30+00:00	0.5%	20.0%	3.7%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T09:58:36+00:00	0.5%	20.0%	3.7%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T10:43:42+00:00	0.5%	20.0%	3.7%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T11:28:53+00:00	0.5%	21.9%	0.6%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T12:14:17+00:00	0.5%	21.9%	0.6%	8.6%	0.2%
2026-10-05T12:59:29+00:00	0.5%	21.9%	0.6%	8.6%	0.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	22%	86.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
National Blend	16%	82.0°F	7.7°F	2026-10-05 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	10%	82.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-05 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	9%	80.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	78.1°F	4.5°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	<1%	76.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending
ICON	<1%	70.0°F	6.9°F	2026-10-05 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261011-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 04 · 07:29 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Nashville · Sun Oct 11

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗