KBNA / Thu Oct 15 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST74%Oct 09 · 02:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

69%

60%

28%

Consensus

74%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 60.0¢Risks 60.00u

AIFSNO 40.0¢Risks 40.00u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +40.00u · AIFS −40.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-08T07:38:31+00:00	94.5%	28.2%	59.7%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T08:24:44+00:00	94.5%	28.2%	59.7%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T09:09:50+00:00	94.5%	28.2%	59.7%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T09:54:57+00:00	94.5%	28.2%	59.7%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T10:40:04+00:00	94.5%	28.2%	59.7%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T11:25:22+00:00	94.5%	67.1%	93.1%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T12:10:43+00:00	94.5%	67.1%	93.1%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T12:55:50+00:00	94.5%	67.1%	93.1%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T13:41:04+00:00	94.5%	67.1%	93.1%	86.4%	18.3%
2026-10-08T14:30:26+00:00	97.3%	67.1%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T15:15:58+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T16:01:33+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T16:46:39+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T17:31:45+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T18:16:51+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T19:01:55+00:00	97.3%	67.7%	93.1%	86.5%	18.7%
2026-10-08T19:47:02+00:00	95.6%	67.7%	93.1%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-08T20:32:13+00:00	95.6%	67.7%	93.1%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-08T21:17:25+00:00	95.6%	67.7%	93.1%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-08T22:02:31+00:00	95.6%	67.7%	93.1%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-08T22:47:37+00:00	95.6%	67.7%	93.1%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-08T23:32:49+00:00	95.6%	68.9%	92.3%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-09T00:17:56+00:00	95.6%	68.9%	92.3%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-09T01:03:08+00:00	95.6%	68.9%	92.3%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-09T01:48:18+00:00	27.7%	68.9%	92.3%	90.2%	59.7%
2026-10-09T02:33:34+00:00	27.7%	68.9%	92.3%	90.2%	59.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	92%	88.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	90%	89.7°F	6.3°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	69%	84.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-08 00:00	Pending
ICON	60%	83.9°F	9.8°F	2026-10-08 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	82.0°F	8.8°F	2026-10-08 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	28%	78.2°F	5.6°F	2026-10-08 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261015-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 08 · 07:38 UTC

Original listing: Nashville high ≥ 82°F · Thu Oct 15

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗