KBNA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Nashville, TNHigh ≥ 83°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 04:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

11%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 11.2¢Risks 11.15u

EPSNO 88.8¢Risks 88.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +88.85u · EPS −88.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:10+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	4.7%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	4.7%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	4.7%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T10:04:58+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	4.7%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	4.7%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	1.6%	3.2%	3.6%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:48+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	3.6%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:55+00:00	1.6%	4.4%	3.6%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	0.7%	4.4%	3.6%	28.5%	6.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	3.7%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T15:26:54+00:00	0.8%	4.4%	3.7%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T16:12:56+00:00	0.8%	4.5%	3.7%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T16:58:03+00:00	0.8%	4.5%	2.9%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T17:43:13+00:00	0.8%	4.5%	2.9%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	0.8%	4.5%	2.9%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T19:13:26+00:00	0.8%	4.5%	2.9%	28.5%	6.9%
2026-10-12T19:58:32+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.9%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.9%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.9%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.9%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:09+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.4%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.4%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:24+00:00	1.2%	4.5%	2.4%	9.0%	19.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	1.2%	3.9%	2.4%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T01:59:47+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	2.4%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	2.4%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	2.4%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T04:15:46+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	2.4%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	7.1%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	7.1%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T06:32:10+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	7.1%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	4.5%	3.9%	7.1%	9.0%	19.6%
2026-10-13T08:03:15+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	7.1%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	7.1%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T09:34:45+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	7.1%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T10:19:55+00:00	9.1%	3.9%	7.1%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T11:05:17+00:00	9.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T11:50:36+00:00	9.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	9.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	9.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.3%
2026-10-13T14:06:02+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:25+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.2%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:17+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	7.1%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:34+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T21:43:14+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	4.0%	14.0%	21.7%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	9.6%	0.4%	4.0%	11.1%	21.7%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	9.6%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:09+00:00	5.4%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:18+00:00	5.4%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:42+00:00	5.4%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	5.4%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:45+00:00	5.4%	0.5%	4.7%	11.1%	21.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	22%	77.0°F	7.0°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	11%	74.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	5%	74.0°F	5.3°F	2026-10-13 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	5%	74.8°F	4.6°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	4%	76.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	1%	71.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-14 02:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	73.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 83°F · KBNA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBNA-20261019-TMAX-GE83
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Nashville runs hot-for-here: 83°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗