KBWI / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 62°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOTime unavailable

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

Two model forecasts are needed to illustrate an opposing contract.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

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Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	96.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	29.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	86.4%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	42.3%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	56.8%	—	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	88.9%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	17.3%	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	51.9%	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	23.1%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	2.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	3.4%	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	2.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	54.2%	9.3%	19.9%	—	28.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	66.7%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	52.2%	76.3%	18.9%	32.3%	—	33.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	31.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	39.4%	54.6%	25.1%	60.6%	—	27.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	69.8%	46.8%	44.4%	—	27.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	7.0%	61.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	71.4%	69.2%	21.3%	—	23.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	50.0%	76.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	43.9%	74.5%	26.2%	—	6.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	23.5%	64.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	23.7%	60.9%	7.9%	—	4.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	23.1%	46.2%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	28.7%	33.0%	49.0%	9.4%	—	7.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	25.7%	46.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	34.0%	25.1%	10.8%	—	11.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	27.1%	38.5%	27.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	24.7%	28.2%	11.4%	13.1%	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	29.6%	14.8%	0.0%	—	9.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	26.0%	22.4%	17.5%	—	13.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	31.4%	31.4%	26.3%	19.1%	—	16.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	35.4%	32.0%	22.7%	7.1%	15.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	33.7%	25.9%	37.3%	30.2%	—	18.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.3%	28.4%	42.0%	40.7%	7.4%	17.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	33.8%	44.4%	26.5%	—	18.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	30.5%	37.2%	54.3%	23.4%	10.8%	19.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.5%	36.6%	54.5%	23.6%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	27.6%	43.7%	21.4%	6.6%	10.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	33.9%	48.4%	15.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261018-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗