KBWI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Baltimore, MDHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

30%

30%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 15.0¢Risks 15.05u

EPSNO 85.0¢Risks 84.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +84.95u · EPS −84.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:35+00:00	28.5%	1.6%	39.7%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:38+00:00	28.5%	1.6%	39.7%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:43+00:00	28.5%	1.6%	39.7%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:51+00:00	28.5%	1.6%	39.7%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:09+00:00	28.5%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:33+00:00	28.5%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	28.5%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	28.5%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.1%
2026-10-13T14:05:59+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T15:41:13+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T16:27:00+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	35.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T17:57:15+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	23.3%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	11.2%
2026-10-13T19:27:26+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	46.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	46.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:41+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	46.8%
2026-10-13T21:42:55+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	32.9%	18.4%	46.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	32.9%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:31+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:42+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:51+00:00	34.8%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:06+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:16+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:29+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:25+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:43+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:57+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:08+00:00	12.0%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	46.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	38.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	38.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	38.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	46.8%	14.2%	38.3%
2026-10-14T10:32:07+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	46.8%	4.5%	38.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:31+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	16.3%	4.5%	38.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:10+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	16.3%	4.5%	38.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	11.7%	0.2%	16.3%	4.5%	38.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	8.4%	0.2%	16.3%	4.5%	38.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	9.1%	0.2%	16.7%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T15:12:00+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	16.7%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	16.7%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T16:43:01+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	16.7%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	11.5%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	11.5%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	9.1%	0.3%	11.5%	4.6%	38.3%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	11.5%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:47+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	11.5%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	11.5%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	11.5%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	11.5%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:38+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:07+00:00	30.8%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:15+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:27+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:01:47+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:49+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	17.3%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:15+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:25+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:33+00:00	29.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.3%	44.4%
2026-10-15T07:48:54+00:00	9.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00	9.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:11+00:00	9.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:06:57+00:00	9.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T10:52:48+00:00	9.5%	0.3%	32.6%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:48+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	19.1%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:04+00:00	9.5%	0.7%	19.1%	9.1%	26.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:46+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	19.1%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:22+00:00	18.3%	0.7%	19.1%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T15:33:37+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	19.1%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T16:19:53+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	19.1%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:19+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	30.5%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:33+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	30.5%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:52+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	30.5%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:05+00:00	18.3%	1.0%	30.5%	9.1%	26.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:13+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	30.5%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	30.5%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	30.5%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	30.5%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-15T23:06:58+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	15.7%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:40+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:26+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T04:23:51+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	26.3%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:22+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:47+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:01+00:00	30.0%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	35.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:11+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:21+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:31+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:46+00:00	6.6%	1.0%	24.8%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:03+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	12.9%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:35+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	12.9%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:45+00:00	6.6%	1.2%	12.9%	12.7%	21.7%
2026-10-16T13:27:57+00:00	32.4%	1.2%	12.9%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:39+00:00	32.3%	1.2%	12.9%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:09+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	12.9%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:53+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	12.9%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:04+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	12.9%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:35+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	32.3%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	21.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:50+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	17.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	17.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:44+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	17.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	36.3%	7.8%	17.2%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	36.3%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:15+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T00:08:46+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T04:40:53+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:05+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	45.7%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	51.1%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	37.2%	1.4%	51.1%	8.4%	17.2%
2026-10-17T07:43:56+00:00	33.7%	1.4%	51.1%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	33.7%	1.4%	51.1%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:23+00:00	33.7%	1.4%	51.1%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	33.7%	1.4%	51.1%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	33.7%	1.4%	51.1%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T11:31:59+00:00	33.7%	0.3%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	33.7%	0.3%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	33.7%	0.3%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:46+00:00	30.4%	0.3%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:29+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	39.5%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:37+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	37.2%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	37.2%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	37.2%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:01+00:00	30.4%	0.4%	37.2%	4.2%	4.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:08+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	37.2%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-17T20:41:25+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	37.2%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-17T21:26:35+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	37.2%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-17T22:11:51+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	37.2%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-17T22:56:58+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-17T23:42:09+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-18T00:27:21+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-18T01:12:37+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-18T01:58:06+00:00	28.7%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-18T02:43:18+00:00	29.6%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%
2026-10-18T03:28:26+00:00	29.6%	0.4%	29.7%	2.4%	1.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	30%	74.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	30%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	67.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
ICON	2%	68.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	68.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	69.2°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KBWI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KBWI-20261020-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Baltimore runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗