KCLE / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Cleveland, OHHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 14 · 18:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

37%

21%

14%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 18.6¢Risks 18.60u

EPSNO 81.4¢Risks 81.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +81.40u · EPS −81.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:03:41+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	26.3%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	26.3%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	26.3%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	39.5%	2.1%	26.3%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	21.6%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	21.6%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T12:35:49+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	21.6%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	39.5%	0.2%	21.6%	10.4%	7.7%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	21.7%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	21.7%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T15:41:37+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	21.7%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T16:27:03+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	21.7%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T17:12:11+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	7.8%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	31.8%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	31.8%
2026-10-13T20:57:43+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	31.8%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	22.9%	10.4%	31.8%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	22.9%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-13T23:58:45+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T00:43:53+00:00	34.8%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T02:59:52+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	31.8%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	37.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:37+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	37.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	37.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	28.7%	13.8%	37.2%
2026-10-14T10:33:34+00:00	31.9%	0.2%	28.7%	14.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	31.9%	0.0%	19.8%	14.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	31.9%	0.0%	19.8%	14.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	31.9%	0.0%	19.8%	14.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:28+00:00	19.8%	0.0%	19.8%	14.3%	37.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	20.1%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	20.1%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	20.1%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	20.1%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	13.2%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	13.2%	14.4%	37.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:27+00:00	20.7%	0.0%	13.2%	14.4%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	37%	72.2°F	7.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	70.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	14%	67.5°F	6.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	68.0°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	13%	69.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	67.0°F	2.8°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	65.5°F	2.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KCLE

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLE-20261020-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 13 · 08:03 UTC

Original listing: Cleveland runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗