KCLT / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 64°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

55%

48%

37%

17%

Consensus

46%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 41.1¢Risks 41.05u

HRESNO 58.9¢Risks 58.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +58.95u · HRES −58.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T07:31:40+00:00	28.9%	78.1%	70.1%	76.6%	—
2026-10-11T08:18:01+00:00	28.9%	78.1%	70.1%	76.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:03:06+00:00	28.9%	78.1%	70.1%	76.6%	—
2026-10-11T09:48:15+00:00	28.9%	78.1%	70.1%	76.6%	—
2026-10-11T10:33:35+00:00	28.9%	78.1%	70.1%	76.6%	—
2026-10-12T15:26:46+00:00	66.1%	71.2%	87.7%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T16:12:54+00:00	66.1%	73.5%	87.7%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	66.1%	73.5%	80.3%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	66.1%	73.5%	80.3%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T18:28:18+00:00	66.1%	73.5%	80.3%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	66.1%	73.5%	80.3%	74.9%	74.4%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	80.3%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-12T20:43:41+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	80.3%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-12T21:28:48+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	80.3%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-12T22:13:55+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	80.3%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-12T22:59:07+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-12T23:44:16+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.4%
2026-10-13T01:14:38+00:00	70.8%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T01:59:45+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T03:30:00+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T04:15:24+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	82.1%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T05:01:43+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	83.2%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T05:46:50+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	83.2%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T06:32:05+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	83.2%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T07:17:16+00:00	73.3%	73.5%	83.2%	56.7%	96.3%
2026-10-13T08:02:51+00:00	63.5%	73.5%	83.2%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	63.5%	73.5%	83.2%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	63.5%	73.5%	83.2%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00	63.5%	73.5%	83.2%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	63.5%	57.4%	59.7%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	63.5%	57.4%	59.7%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	63.5%	57.4%	59.7%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	63.5%	57.4%	59.7%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	61.1%	57.4%	59.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	59.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	59.6%	43.8%	74.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	59.6%	43.9%	74.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	74.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	74.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	61.1%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	74.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	78.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	78.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:03+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	60.6%	43.9%	78.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	60.6%	43.2%	78.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	64.2%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	50.0%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	78.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	61.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	61.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	61.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	64.2%	43.1%	61.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:20+00:00	53.5%	63.4%	64.2%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:39+00:00	53.5%	45.0%	58.5%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	53.5%	45.0%	58.5%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	53.5%	45.0%	58.5%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	56.9%	45.0%	58.5%	32.3%	61.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	56.9%	45.0%	58.5%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	58.5%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	58.5%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	58.5%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	46.8%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	46.8%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	56.9%	48.0%	46.8%	32.3%	62.2%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	46.8%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	46.8%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	46.8%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	46.8%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T22:44:07+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	46.8%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	63.6%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	65.2%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	65.2%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	65.2%	48.0%	55.3%	16.9%	37.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	65.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.1211
WeatherNext 2	55%	64.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1998
NWS forecast	55%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.2070
IFS Ensemble	48%	63.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.2704
National Blend	44%	63.0°F	3.6°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.3080
ICON	37%	61.9°F	4.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.3969
IFS HRES	17%	58.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.6906

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261018-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 11 · 07:31 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte high ≥ 64°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗