KCLT / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Charlotte, NCHigh ≥ 81°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 10:17 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

44%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 22.7¢Risks 22.70u

EPSNO 77.3¢Risks 77.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +77.30u · EPS −77.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-13T08:02:52+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	26.9%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	26.9%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	26.9%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T10:19:52+00:00	26.7%	1.3%	26.9%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T11:05:12+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T11:50:34+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T12:35:47+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T13:20:53+00:00	26.7%	0.2%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	18.7%	0.2%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T14:56:02+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T15:41:21+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T16:27:01+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T17:12:08+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T18:42:21+00:00	18.7%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	5.9%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T20:12:32+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T21:43:03+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	18.8%	14.5%	39.3%
2026-10-13T22:28:22+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	18.8%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-13T23:13:33+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-13T23:58:43+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	27.3%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T01:29:07+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T02:59:31+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T03:45:27+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:46:11+00:00	19.7%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	39.3%
2026-10-14T07:31:25+00:00	17.8%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T08:16:33+00:00	17.8%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	17.8%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T09:46:51+00:00	17.8%	0.3%	29.4%	12.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T10:32:21+00:00	17.8%	0.3%	29.4%	5.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:40+00:00	17.8%	0.2%	11.1%	5.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:11+00:00	17.8%	0.2%	11.1%	5.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:18+00:00	17.8%	0.2%	11.1%	5.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:26+00:00	8.1%	0.2%	11.1%	5.8%	22.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	8.8%	0.2%	11.5%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:06+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	11.5%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:53+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	11.5%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:02+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	11.5%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:10+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	12.3%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	12.3%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:25+00:00	8.8%	0.3%	12.3%	5.9%	22.6%
2026-10-14T19:43:32+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	12.3%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	12.3%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	12.3%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	12.3%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	12.3%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:31+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:39+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:09+00:00	17.7%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:16+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T04:01:53+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:51+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	19.0%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	16.2%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	16.2%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	11.0%	0.3%	16.2%	17.7%	27.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:12+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	16.2%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	16.2%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:43+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	16.2%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:28+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	16.2%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	16.2%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:09+00:00	6.3%	0.3%	12.6%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	6.3%	0.1%	12.6%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:10+00:00	6.3%	0.1%	12.6%	13.7%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	12.6%	13.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	6.1%	0.1%	12.6%	13.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T15:33:49+00:00	6.1%	0.2%	12.6%	13.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	6.1%	0.2%	12.6%	13.8%	30.2%
2026-10-15T20:06:14+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	9.4%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	9.4%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:41+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	9.4%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:48+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	9.4%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-15T23:06:59+00:00	26.0%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	25.9%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:21+00:00	25.9%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:41+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:09+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:27+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:38+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:56+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	9.0%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:23+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:51+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	28.6%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	28.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:11:22+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:32+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:40+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:47+00:00	20.4%	0.2%	14.8%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:07+00:00	20.4%	3.3%	4.3%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	20.4%	3.3%	4.3%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:47+00:00	20.4%	3.3%	4.3%	13.8%	15.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:04+00:00	31.6%	3.3%	4.3%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	31.5%	3.3%	4.3%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:13+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	4.3%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	4.3%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:09+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	4.3%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:17+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:41+00:00	31.5%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	15.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:54+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	18.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:21+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	18.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:51+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	6.2%	18.3%
2026-10-16T22:37:58+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:21+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:08:47+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T00:54:56+00:00	34.7%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:05+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:17+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T04:41:11+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	8.5%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T05:28:21+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	12.9%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:13:34+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	12.9%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T06:58:44+00:00	41.4%	3.9%	12.9%	9.3%	18.3%
2026-10-17T07:44:05+00:00	48.1%	3.9%	12.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:37+00:00	48.1%	3.9%	12.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:29+00:00	48.1%	3.9%	12.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:48+00:00	48.1%	3.9%	12.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:53+00:00	48.1%	3.9%	12.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:00+00:00	48.1%	1.1%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:26+00:00	48.1%	1.1%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:32+00:00	48.1%	1.1%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:48+00:00	42.6%	1.1%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:15+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T15:24:29+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	15.7%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	17.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:46+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	17.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:54+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	17.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	42.6%	1.3%	17.9%	11.4%	12.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:09+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	17.9%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:26+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	17.9%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	17.9%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	17.9%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-17T22:56:59+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:10+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:22+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:51+00:00	39.9%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:11+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:19+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:27+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T04:13:46+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	18.7%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:11+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	22.0%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T05:45:18+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	22.0%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	22.0%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T07:15:32+00:00	37.2%	1.3%	22.0%	9.7%	13.9%
2026-10-18T08:00:56+00:00	44.1%	1.3%	22.0%	5.6%	5.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	44.1%	1.3%	22.0%	5.6%	5.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:16+00:00	44.1%	1.3%	22.0%	5.6%	5.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:24+00:00	44.1%	1.3%	22.0%	5.6%	5.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	44%	79.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	77.9°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	6%	74.0°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	5%	74.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	1%	74.7°F	2.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	74.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KCLT

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KCLT-20261020-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 13 · 08:02 UTC

Original listing: Charlotte runs hot-for-here: 81°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗